The last day of August was also the worst day for rates in August. In fact, it was the worse than any of July as well and not too terribly far from the 14-year highs seen in June. The average lender is only about a quarter of a percent to 0.375% away from the levels seen on June 14th (the 14-year high day).
It didn’t take much movement for today to earn this dubious distinction as rates had already been drifting toward these levels by the end of last week. Most of the current week had been fairly flat. Yesterday even started out that way, but things deteriorated after 3pm as traders closed up trading positions for the month. This can occasionally cause big, random movement in either direction. Today just wasn’t the direction we would have preferred.
From here, economic data is likely to guide the next shift in rate momentum. There are important reports scheduled for each of the next two days. If they’re stronger than expected, rates could easily continue higher. If they’re weaker than expected, it would be an important test for the bond market as it would let us know if rates are simply on a mission to get to higher levels (i.e. because traders may have lingering feelings of being behind the 8-ball with respect to pricing in the likely path of Fed policy, inflation, and economic data) or if they’re truly ready to take cues from the data.
