August 1, 2022
During the Fed’s press conference last week, Powell reiterated what we thought we already knew about Fed policy and the bond market in general. Specifically, the next big-picture shift will be data dependent. In several ways, that narrative already began playing out in July. Now August is kicking things off in the same vein with a big drop in manufacturing inflation (via ISM’s “prices paid” component) yesterday. Bonds rallied after that to end the day at the best levels in months.